Top insider trades (Fri, Feb 20)

Connor’s Commentary

There were 311 new insider trades filed.

Two new insider trades were flagged as High Signal (and both will likely be added to the CEO Watcher Portfolio when I clear up some space). CEO Watcher Premium subs can see those in the Trade Notes section of this email or the CEO Watcher Premium Dashboard that is linked in the Data Dump section.

As a reminder, if you upgrade to CEO Watcher Premium (link) and find that it isn’t for you, I’ll give you a refund.

• Director at First American Financial Corp (FAF) bought $4M. This is their first-ever purchase, and their first trade since a sale in 2015

• The Exec Chairman at American Assets Trust (AAT) bought $3M (15th largest purchase, out of 183). First purchase since 2023

• Director at Nasdaq (NDAQ) bought $958k (largest purchase ever, out of 2). The stock is down 20% in the last month, and this purchase increased their listed holdings by 42%

• Exec Chair at Commerce.com (CMRC) bought $294k (3rd largest, out of 5). The stock is down 58% in the last year.

• Director at USA Compression Partners (USAC) bought $267k (2nd largest purchase, out of 14). This increased their listed holdings by 42%. The stock is up 17% in the last 3m.

• Director at Liberty Energy (LBRT) bought $250k (3rd largest purchase, out of 5). This increased their listed holdings by 54%. The stock is up 150% in the last 6 months.

• The President at SelectQuote (SLQT) bought $105k. The stock is down 86% in the last year.

• The CFO at National Research Corp (NRC) bought $100k (first-ever purchase). The stock is down 43% in the last month.

• Chief Accounting Officer at Howmet Aerospace (HWM) sold $11.36M (largest sale ever, out of 14). The stock is up 86% in the last year.

• Director at Ryder System (R) bought $6.7M (largest sale ever, out of 12). This sale decreased their listed holdings by 95%. The stock is up 33% in the last 3m.

• The CFO at T-Mobile (TMUS) sold $5.8M (2nd largest sale, out of 10). This sale decreased their listed holdings by 38%.

• Exec Chairman at Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings (KNX) sold $4.2M (14th largest sale, out of 42). The stock is up 43% in the last 3m.

• The CEO at M/I Homes (MHO) sold $4M (4th largest sale, out of 92).

• The Chief Legal Officer at Roblox (RBLX) sold $3.84M (6th largest sale, out of 29). The stock is down 50% in the last 6 months.

• and more…

Commentary

Happy Friday! Let’s take a look at the CEO Watcher data this week.

The CEO Watcher Portfolio is slightly positive this week (0.69% v 0.38% for the S&P).

We are now up 24.4% since starting the portfolio at the end of October (v -0.42% for the S&P). Closing in on 25 points of outperformance in less than four months.

The CEO Watcher High Signal list actually had an even better week than the portfolio due to the biotech stocks in the list crushing it (up 10% on average).

The High Signal List is up an average of 2.58%.

This boosts the overall outperformance of the High Signal List to over 8 points.

So far, our system of identifying high signal insider purchases is working quite well!

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Our favorite insider sentiment indicator continues to fall off a cliff. It’s been falling nonstop since November.

One benefit of copying insider purchases is that insiders tend to be value investors, so the stocks they are buying tend to hold up relatively well during tough markets (as evidenced by the CEO Watcher Portfolio smoking the S&P over the last few months).

We’re still not below the “bullish” threshold, but we are getting closer.

As a reminder, falling below the “bullish” threshold does not mean the S&P is likely to fall; it just correlates with below-average performance.

Over the last decade, the S&P averages forward 1-year returns of 9% when the sentiment score is below the “bullish” threshold and 26% when it is above the “very bullish” threshold.

Lastly, a quick look at the S&P chart shows that we are getting dangerously close to the trend flipping to a downward trend as the SPY cannot get above 700, and the short-term moving averages start to roll over.

Nobody should listen to what I’m doing in my personal portfolio, but I’m still fully invested. I’ve just been continuing to rotate more of my money into the value stocks with insider dip buying that we have on the High Signal List.

There has been a ton of insider dip buying recently.

CEO Watcher Premium subscribers can always see the stocks in the High Signal List and the list of insider dip buys (plus CEO Watcher Portfolio holdings and much more), in the CEO Watcher Premium Dashboard spreadsheet, which is linked at the top of the Data Dump section further down in this email.

keep scrolling. top trades + all of the charts and data below

CEO Watcher Premium

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