Top insider trades (Wed, Feb 25)

Connor’s Commentary

There were 220 new insider trades filed.

Three insider trades were flagged as High Signal, and two were added to the CEO Watcher Portfolio. CEO Watcher Premium subs can see those in the Trade Notes section of this email or the CEO Watcher Premium Dashboard that is linked in the Data Dump section.

As a reminder, if you upgrade to CEO Watcher Premium (link) and find that it isn’t for you, I’ll give you a refund.

• Director (on behalf of Sequioa) at Figma (FIG) bought $1M of the stock. First-purchase ever

• The Global CEO at TravelZoo (TZOO) bought $1M of the stock (largest purchase, out of 2). They sold the stock 8 times in a row before this purchase.

• The Exec Chairman at American Assets Trust (AAT) bought $1.6M (38th largest purchase, out of 184).

• The two co-CEOs at Hamilton Lane (HLNE) bought $1M of the stock each. The stock is down 30% in the last month

• Founder of Ryan Specialty Holdings (RYAN) bought $1M (largest purchase ever, out of 4). Stock is down almost 30% in the last three months.

• Director at OGE Energy (OGE) bought $500k (largest purchase, out of 4).

• Director at Bausch & Lomb (BLCO) bought $267k (first-ever purchase). Stock is on a roll. It's up 20% in the last three months.

• Chief Administrative Officer at Tyler Technologies (TYL) bought $200k (first-ever purchase). Stock is down almost 30% in the last month.

• 3 insiders at Verisk Analytics (VRSK) bought a combined $450k of the stock. The stock is down 30% in the last 6 months.

• 3 insiders at Comfort Systems (FIX) sold a combined $15M of the stock. The CFO made their largest sale ever (out of 21). The stock is up 300% in the last year.

• The CEO at PNC Financial Services (PNC) sold $11.54M (4th largest sale, out of 67). The stock is up 25% in the last 3 months.

• Director at CF Industries (CF) bought $11.22M (3rd largest sale, out of 8). The stock is up 26% in the last 3 months.

• 3 insiders at LCI Industries (LCII) sold a combined $13M of the stock. The CEO made their largest sale ever, out of 51

• Another director at MKS Inc (MKSI) sold $5M of the stock (largest sale ever, out of 44). The stock is up 150% in the last 6 months.

• and more…

Commentary

Let’s do a quick case study of a CEO purchase that just crossed the one-year mark and is up 80%.

On February 12th, the CEO at Kennametal (KMT) filed a purchase of $218k at $21.75/share.

The stock opened the next day at $22.29 (we always use the following day’s open price for our analysis as it best represents the price we would pay if we copied the trade).

I actually posted this one on X, but it was way before we had our fancy graphics (and apparently I couldn’t read at the time, as I wrote that the purchase was $169k instead of $218k).

The positives:

• Increased holdings by over 10% (research)

• An officer was buying the stock (research)

• It was a dip buy as the stock was down nearly 30% since November (research). The stock had also just fallen another 10% on earnings.

• It was an unscheduled purchase

The CEO had bought the stock three times prior, and he had decent success on those previous purchases (+12% 6m returns and +30% 1y returns).

However, only one of the purchases was over one year old (and therefore had one-year returns), so the sample size was obviously too small to be meaningful.

We also see that no other insiders were buying, and a few other insiders were actually selling a few months prior at the November highs.

Some investors don’t like to see insider selling within the few months before an insider buys. I’m less bothered by it, particularly when we see a purchase that meets many of our High Signal criteria (dip buying, large holdings increase, etc.) and if the stock has already fallen quite a bit since those sales.

The data shows that insider selling is a much weaker signal (on average) than insider buying, especially High Signal insider buying.

Looking at the valuation of the company at the time, its P/E ratio actually was still trading above its average (17.9x v 16x median).

This was because their EPS estimate had also fallen. So the stock didn’t actually get any cheaper when the price fell.

You’ll also notice the EPS estimates continue to fall and had another large step down after Q2 earnings, which caused the stock to fall another 20%.

The chart also shows that the stock continued to fall after the CEO purchased. It eventually bottomed out after the announcement of the Liberation Day tariffs, but not before it fell 20% after the CEO bought.

Eventually, the EPS estimates rose sharply, driving strong stock performance in the 2nd half of 2025 and into the start of 2026, ultimately leading to 80% returns on the CEO's purchase.

Overall, this trade was a pretty high signal insider purchase due to it being a sizable purchase, an officer buying the stock (especially the CEO), and a dip buy.

It eventually worked out, with the stock now at ~$40, but not without a lot of bumps along the way.

I think the conclusion on this one can go two ways:

1. The more cynical investor would say that the CEO was just wrong and got lucky that things turned around a couple of quarters later

2. The more optimistic investor would say that this pattern actually fits pretty well with what we know about insiders. They are value investors, and, like many value investors, they tend to be a little early with their buys/sells.

keep scrolling. top trades + all of the charts and data below

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