Top insider trades (Wed, Aug 19)

Connor’s Commentary

Our insider sentiment gauge (which tracks unscheduled insider buying vs. unscheduled insider selling) has fallen to its lowest level in over a year.

Over the last decade, insider sentiment has shown a moderate correlation with stock returns.

When insider sentiment is below the dotted green line, the forward returns are slightly below average (~12% 1y returns v 14% on average).

When insider sentiment is above the solid green line, the forward returns are significantly above average (~20% 1y).

So, a big spike in insider sentiment is a much better signal than a big dip, since big spikes tend to occur during major market sell-offs when stocks get oversold (end of 2018, COVID, mid-2022, etc).

As a standalone indicator, the insider sentiment starting to dwindle doesn’t faze me. However, with higher oil prices and sticky inflation, I'm a little more concerned the market may face headwinds.

I’m not acting on it yet, just paying attention.

Today’s Largest Unscheduled Trades

There were 293 new insider trades filed.

1 insider trade was flagged as High Signal because the stock fell over 30% after margins came in lower than expected. However, mgmt claims this is temporary due to their fast growth (they raised rev guidance by over 30%). The company is a civil contracting company that rolls up contractors/services in different geos to vertically integrate. As they vertically integrate, the margins should improve. However, they also got caught up in the AI trade (because they got a data center contract), which throws a wrench in things. Assuming they can execute and reach their target margin range (which seems feasible, as their competitors are in that range), their valuation looks reasonable (and they are growing very fast).

Our system gave high scores to 2 insider purchases (I shared our system’s notes on those in the High Scoring Purchases - Quick Notes).

We also found 1 insider purchase from insiders who average 20%+ 1y returns.

CEO Watcher Premium subs can see all of these notes in later sections of this email.

Today’s most interesting unscheduled insider trades:

• Director (Mullins Eric D.) at TechnipFMC plc $FTI purchased $499.97K (largest purchase ever, out of 6). This increased their listed holdings by 373%. Rip Buy: the stock was up 128% in the previous year.

• SVP, Strategy & Business Ops at RESIDEO TECHNOLOGIES, INC. $REZI purchased $226.00K (first-ever purchase). This increased their listed holdings by 23%. 2 other insiders also purchased the stock in the last 30 days.

• Founder & President at EquipmentShare.com Inc $EQPT purchased $182.88K (2nd largest purchase, out of 2).

• Chief Strategy & M&A Officer at Amrize Ltd $AMRZ purchased $117.77K (largest purchase ever, out of 2). This increased their listed holdings by 32%. Their last purchase was 370 days ago. 5 other insiders also purchased the stock in the last 30 days.

• GC AND CORP SEC at Elanco Animal Health Inc $ELAN purchased $94.27K (first-ever purchase). 3 other insiders also purchased the stock in the last 30 days.

• Chairman, President and CEO at MAXLINEAR, INC $MXL sold $50.44M (largest sale ever, out of 57). This decreased their listed holdings by -11%. Rip Sell: the stock was up 22% in the previous week. Reversal: they made 1 straight purchase before this sale. Their last sale was 1775 days ago.

• President and CEO at Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. $CHEF sold $11.01M (largest sale ever, out of 7). Rip Sell: the stock was up 38% in the previous 3 months. 2 other insiders also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• Chief Risk Officer at Nu Holdings Ltd. $NU sold $3.51M (first-ever sale). 1 other insider also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• EVP, CAO, Gen Counsel & Sec at BORGWARNER INC $BWA sold $3.06M (largest sale ever, out of 28). This decreased their listed holdings by -31%. 3 other insiders also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• SVP, Chief Legal Officer at BRINKER INTERNATIONAL, INC $EAT sold $2.42M (largest sale ever, out of 5). This decreased their listed holdings by -23%. Rip Sell: the stock was up 27% in the previous month. 5 other insiders also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

Today’s largest unscheduled insider trades:

• 10% Owner (CASCADE INVESTMENT, L.L.C.) at REPUBLIC SERVICES, INC. $RSG purchased $76.64M (7th largest purchase, out of 349). This insider has purchased the stock 3 times in the last 30 days.

• 10% Owner (Catalyst4, Inc.) at MapLight Therapeutics, Inc. $MLPT purchased $50.07M (2nd largest purchase, out of 3). This increased their listed holdings by 35%. Dip Buy: the stock was down -68% in the previous month. 1 other insider also purchased the stock in the last 30 days.

• Director (Sousa Mauad Bruno) at Aura Minerals Inc. $AUGO purchased $868.23K (largest purchase ever, out of 2). Rip Buy: the stock was up 56% in the previous month.

• 10% Owner (Endeavor Blockchain, LLC) at Big Digital Energy, Inc. $BGDE purchased $475.05K (3rd largest purchase, out of 3). Rip Buy: the stock was up 116% in the previous 6 months.

• Director (Apeiron Investment Group Ltd.) at Enhanced Group Inc. $ENHA purchased $330.42K (8th largest purchase, out of 14). Dip Buy: the stock was down -42% in the previous month. This insider has purchased the stock 2 times in the last 30 days.

• Director (Wimmer Richard Bennett) at Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. $CDNL purchased $293.48K (largest purchase ever, out of 2). This increased their listed holdings by 34%. Dip Buy: the stock was down -44% in the previous month. 6 other insiders also purchased the stock in the last 30 days. Large price difference: Current: $45.14 | Tx: $39.13 | Diff: (+15.36%).

• Director (Rochard Pierre) at Strive, Inc. $ASST purchased $199.39K (first-ever purchase). Dip Buy: the stock was down -84% in the previous year.

• Director (SPARBY DAVID M) at Everus Construction Group, Inc. $ECG purchased $144.95K (largest purchase ever, out of 5).

• Director (Montalbano John S.) at AbCellera Biologics Inc. $ABCL purchased $110.30K (6th largest purchase, out of 10). Rip Buy: the stock was up 73% in the previous month. 2 other insiders also purchased the stock in the last 30 days.

• Director (Hixon Dylan) at Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. $NRGV purchased $106.54K (2nd largest purchase, out of 4). Rip Buy: the stock was up 24% in the previous month. This insider has purchased the stock 2 times in the last 30 days.

• 10% Owner (Chheda Neil) at EquipmentShare.com Inc $EQPT sold $26.74M (first-ever sale). Rip Sell: the stock was up 28% in the previous month. This insider has sold the stock 2 times in the last 30 days.

• 10% Owner (Prescott General Partners LLC) at WORLD ACCEPTANCE CORP $WRLD sold $25.00M (5th largest sale, out of 45). 4 other insiders also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• 10% Owner (Chheda Neil) at EquipmentShare.com Inc $EQPT sold $18.66M (2nd largest sale, out of 2). This decreased their listed holdings by -20%. This insider has sold the stock 2 times in the last 30 days.

• Director (Vassallo Steven) at Cerebras Systems Inc. $CBRS sold $10.91M (largest sale ever, out of 9). Rip Sell: the stock was up 27% in the previous month.

• Director (Heard William) at Anterix Inc. $ATEX sold $4.18M (first-ever sale). Rip Sell: the stock was up 66% in the previous 3 months. 1 other insider also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• General Counsel at Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. $CHEF sold $3.88M (largest sale ever, out of 11). This decreased their listed holdings by -50%. Rip Sell: the stock was up 38% in the previous 3 months. 2 other insiders also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• Director (SUGG LAURA A) at Kinetik Holdings Inc. $KNTK sold $3.20M (largest sale ever, out of 2). This decreased their listed holdings by -74%. 2 other insiders also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• Director (Heng Chen Seng) at Sea Ltd $SE sold $2.45M (first-ever sale). This decreased their listed holdings by -10%. Rip Sell: the stock was up 14% in the previous month. 6 other insiders also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• EVP & Chief Financial Officer at CoreCivic, Inc. $CXW sold $1.69M (largest sale ever, out of 22). This decreased their listed holdings by -12%. Rip Sell: the stock was up 54% in the previous 3 months. 7 other insiders also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• EVP & Grp President, Utilities at NISOURCE INC. $NI sold $1.59M (largest sale ever, out of 2). This decreased their listed holdings by -32%.

• Director (PRANN JOHN R JR) at CoreCivic, Inc. $CXW sold $1.34M (largest sale ever, out of 15). This decreased their listed holdings by -56%. Rip Sell: the stock was up 54% in the previous 3 months. 7 other insiders also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• Director (Clossey Timothy) at PAR PACIFIC HOLDINGS, INC. $PARR sold $1.10M (largest sale ever, out of 4). This decreased their listed holdings by -17%. Rip Sell: the stock was up 39% in the previous 3 months. 2 other insiders also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• President, WOTC at HASBRO, INC. $HAS sold $1.08M (largest sale ever, out of 2). This decreased their listed holdings by -18%. 3 other insiders also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• and more…

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