Top insider trades (Thu, Jul 30)

Connor’s Commentary

We sold TravelZoo (TZOO) out of the CEO Watcher Portfolio after the recent earnings call broke the story.

The stock was added to the Portfolio at the end of February at $5.96 and exited at $7.40 (+24%). However, we trimmed significantly around $12, so the overall return was above 60%.

The company was switching from ads to subscription, which caused GAAP EPS to drop because acquiring customers requires an upfront payment, but revenue is recognized over the life of the subscription.

The stock fell 50% due to this transition and was trading ~50% below its median EV/Sales multiple, but was set to have blowout earnings starting in Q1 as members renewed at ~$0 CAC.

This came true, and the stock rallied 30% into Q1 earnings, popped another 30% after reporting earnings, and then went up another 20% and briefly got above $12.

However, Q2 earnings saw a big decline in margins and higher-than-expected CAC costs, suggesting that renewals may not be as low-cost as expected, and/or acquiring customers for the subscription product is more expensive than expected.

Overall, the trade worked out quite well.

Today’s Largest Unscheduled Trades

There were 129 new insider trades filed.

No insider trades were flagged as High Signal, but one of the stocks in the CEO Watcher Portfolio just had another insider buy the stock.

CEO Watcher Premium subs can see those notes in later sections of this email.

Today’s largest unscheduled insider trades:

• Director (Campos Luis) at BETTERWARE DE MEXICO, S.A.P.I. DE C.V $BWMX purchased $768.48K (first-ever purchase).

• Director (Sukhtian Faisal Ghiath) at Outlook Therapeutics, Inc. $OTLK purchased $100.00K (largest purchase ever, out of 4). This increased their listed holdings by 75%. Dip Buy: the stock was down -46% in the previous month. Their last purchase was 1386 days ago.

• Director (Moak Donald Lee) at Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. $AERO purchased $99.99K.

• 10% Owner (ADAR1 Capital Management, LLC) at NextCure, Inc. $NXTC purchased $87.71K. Dip Buy: the stock was down -39% in the previous 3 months.

• Director (Schlehuber Lisa Ann) at EQUITY BANCSHARES INC $EQBK purchased $50.43K (first-ever purchase). This increased their listed holdings by 89%.

• 10% Owner (ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, L.P.) at Intuitive Machines, Inc. $LUNR sold $147.60M (88th largest sale, out of 152). This decreased their listed holdings by -50%. Dip Sell: the stock was down -41% in the previous month. 1 other insider also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• Director (RAINBOLT DAVID E) at BANCFIRST CORP /OK/ $BANF sold $9.51M (largest sale ever, out of 34). This decreased their listed holdings by -55%. This insider has sold the stock 3 times in the last 30 days.

• Pres, Wealth Mgmt Advisor Grp at AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL INC $AMP sold $8.67M (first-ever sale). This decreased their listed holdings by -63%. Rip Sell: the stock was up 22% in the previous month.

• Exec. VP, Operations at Medpace Holdings, Inc. $MEDP sold $4.50M (5th largest sale, out of 14). This decreased their listed holdings by -10%. Rip Sell: the stock was up 38% in the previous 3 months. 1 other insider also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• President & CEO at Medpace Holdings, Inc. $MEDP sold $4.35M (73rd largest sale, out of 115). Rip Sell: the stock was up 38% in the previous 3 months. 1 other insider also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• 10% Owner (L1 Capital Pty Ltd) at Anteris Technologies Global Corp. $AVR sold $3.60M (largest sale ever, out of 2). Rip Sell: the stock was up 38% in the previous 3 months. This insider has sold the stock 3 times in the last 30 days.

• Executive Vice President and* at Chubb Ltd $CB sold $3.10M (3rd largest sale, out of 12). This decreased their listed holdings by -20%.

• CEO & Executive Chairman at Karooooo Ltd. $KARO sold $3.06M (first-ever sale). Rip Sell: the stock was up 33% in the previous month.

• President & CEO at NVE CORP /NEW/ $NVEC sold $2.30M (largest sale ever, out of 8). This decreased their listed holdings by -16%. Rip Sell: the stock was up 46% in the previous 3 months.

• President, PCG at RAYMOND JAMES FINANCIAL INC $RJF sold $1.76M (2nd largest sale, out of 10). This decreased their listed holdings by -15%. Their last sale was 714 days ago. 1 other insider also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• EVP and General Counsel at SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP INC $SIGI sold $1.61M (largest sale ever, out of 10). This decreased their listed holdings by -50%. Their last sale was 3457 days ago.

• Director (RAINBOLT DAVID E) at BANCFIRST CORP /OK/ $BANF sold $1.46M (15th largest sale, out of 35). This decreased their listed holdings by -19%. This insider has sold the stock 3 times in the last 30 days.

• Chief Client Officer at MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC. $MRSH sold $1.35M (3rd largest sale, out of 4). This decreased their listed holdings by -29%. Rip Sell: the stock was up 15% in the previous month. Their last sale was 510 days ago. 1 other insider also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• Exec. Vice President and CFO at COMMERCE BANCSHARES INC /MO/ $CBSH sold $1.17M (largest sale ever, out of 33). This decreased their listed holdings by -10%. Their last sale was 533 days ago. 1 other insider also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• EVP & CFO at HASBRO, INC. $HAS sold $1.05M (2nd largest sale, out of 2). This decreased their listed holdings by -11%. 1 other insider also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• President-Intl & SVP-Allegion at Allegion plc $ALLE sold $1.01M. This decreased their listed holdings by -17%. 2 other insiders also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• SVP, General Counsel, Corp Sec at RELIANCE, INC. $RS sold $974.63K (6th largest sale, out of 14). This decreased their listed holdings by -10%.

• 10% Owner (HRT FINANCIAL LP) at Twin Vee PowerCats, Co. $VEEE sold $897.03K. This decreased their listed holdings by -89%. Rip Sell: the stock was up 199% in the previous month.

• SVP Corporate Controller at American Airlines Group Inc. $AAL sold $601.02K (2nd largest sale, out of 3). This decreased their listed holdings by -15%. Rip Sell: the stock was up 35% in the previous 3 months. Their last sale was 546 days ago. 1 other insider also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• and more…

The rest of this email is for premium subscribers only.

CEO Watcher Premium

The rest of this email (including today’s top insider trades + all the charts and data) is for CEO Watcher Premium subscribers only. To see an example of the Premium email, click here.

Upgrade to CEO Watcher Premium at ceowatcher.com to unlock:

• The Premium daily emails

• Full access to the website, which has all insider trades back to 2009. It includes search/filters and the returns of every trade and every insider to help you find the top insider trades

• Full access to the CEO Watcher Premium Discord where I share my notes and holdings in the CEO Watcher Portfolio

• The Premium Dashboard, which has a bunch of charts/tables with insider trading data that is updated each day

If CEO Watcher Premium is not for you, I give full refunds with no questions asked.