Top insider trades (Mon, Dec 29)

Connor’s Commentary

There were 240 insider trades filed.

• CEO at WhiteHorse Finance (WHF) bought $116k. Largest purchase ever (out of 8 and has a 14% dividend if that’s your thing

• The CEO at Upexi (UPXI) bought $90k (2nd purchase in the last week). The stock is down over 75% in the last six months.

• Another director at The Cooper Companies (COO) bought $150k of the stock (5th insider purchase in the last month)

• The CEO at Protalix BioTherapeutics, Inc. (PLX) bought $100k of the stock. It’s their first purchase in over 2 years.

• The CEO at Xencor (XNCR) sold $1.8M. The stock is up 84% in the last six months.

• The executives continue selling Urban Outfitters (URBN)

• The CEO at ConocoPhillips (COP) exercised and sold $46M worth of options (they don’t expire until December 2026, but I’m unsure of the vesting schedule)

• The Chief Medical Officer at Olema Pharmaceuticals (OLMA) sold $7.53M of the stock after its 575% returns in the last 6 months (first-ever sale).

• The General Counsel at Arthur J Gallagher (AJG) sold $4M (3rd largest sale, out of 21)

• and much more…

I go into more depth on these companies in the CEO Watcher Premium sections below.

Commentary

The recent $3M purchase of Nike stock by Tim Cook got a lot of attention last week, so I thought I’d share my notes on it with everyone. This will also give the free users an idea of how I look into insider trades and the notes I share with premium subscribers.

First, a trade has to have something compelling about it for it to be worth looking into. In this case, we know from our backtesting that insider purchases that increase the insider’s holdings by at least 10% and reversals (when an insider flips from selling to buying) correlate with outperformance.

This purchase from Tim Cook hit both of those triggers in our system (plus was a little bit of a dip buy and a cluster purchase with another director).

Tim Cook bought $2.95M of Nike, which increased his listed holdings by 90%. He also had never bought Nike (or Apple) stock before, but had made 32 open-market sales. Not only was this purchase a reversal, but it was his first-ever purchase and a reversal after a very long streak of selling.

While this purchase doesn’t quite meet our internal qualifications for a “high signal dip buy” (we like to see a 20%+ short-term dip or 50%+ long-term), it is still notable that the stock is down 10%+ in the last three months and 20%+ in the last year.

It is also a cluster buy, as another director also bought $500k. It was this director’s 6th largest purchase (out of 17) and increased his listed holdings by 24%.

However, his track record is only mediocre. He averages ~10% 1y returns on his previous purchases.

The three main negatives for these insider purchases are:

1. No track record for Tim Cook. We prefer to see an insider with a track record of buying the stock before significant stock price increases

2. The upside for Nike is relatively limited as a $90B market cap retail company. Small/mid-cap insider purchases have better performance on average

3. The stock doesn’t look super cheap on the surface. It’s still trading at its median P/E

Overall, I’d rank this as a 4/5 (solely based on the insider purchasing activity - not Nike as a company). It’s a pass for the CEO Watcher Portfolio as there are better opportunities out there, but I wouldn’t fault anyone for copying Tim Cook and trying to buy the dip here.

keep scrolling. top trades + all of the charts and data below

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