Top insider trades (Mon, Dec 22)

Connor’s Commentary

There were 190 new insider filings:

• A second AutoZone (AZO) director buys the dip ($500k)

• The Dorchester Minerals Operating LP bought $445k of Dorchester Minerals (DMLP)

• Daniel Lau, a 10% Owner, bought $1.42M of Gran Tierra Energy (GTE)

• Another Director at The Cooper Companies (COO) bought the stock (first-ever purchase)

• The Chief Administrative & Legal Officer at AppLovin (APP) exchanged 2.6% of her shares for shares of an exchange fund that she won’t receive for at least 7 years.

• The CEO at Urban Outfitters (URBN) has sold $250M of the stock in the last month

• The CEO at Patrick Industries (PATK) sold $2.88M

• A Sr VP at Hecla Mining (HL) sold $4M of the stock (largest sale ever). Another Sr VP also sold $1.5M

• The CFO at Intuit (INTU) sold $741k.

• and much more…

I go into more depth on these companies in the CEO Watcher Premium sections below.

Commentary

In the November 17th email Trade Notes section, I shared the below note on Redwire (RDW) and added it as a High Signal Trade to the CEO Watcher Premium Dashboard.

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Redwire Corp (RDW)

Description: Provides critical space solutions and space infrastructure for government and commercial customers in the United States, Europe, and internationally. ($900M mkt cap)
Conclusion: Wait for price action to improve despite very high-signal insider activity and compelling industry setup

The Chief Accounting Officer made their largest purchase ever ($30k) with stellar historical returns (25% 1m / 44% 3m / 61% 6m / 207% 1y, 100% win rate). Obviously, not a huge purchase, but their previous returns are high enough to make it very interesting. Plus, three other executives also bought last week, giving this cluster a very strong insider signal. The company recently signed contracts with Italy’s defense sector and Croatia’s border patrol, with revenue up 50% YoY, contract awards tripling YoY, and adjusted EBITDA improving through growth and margin expansion (27% adjusted gross margin). However, they had to delay several orders into 2026 due to the U.S. government shutdown. It doesn’t look particularly cheap, so it’ll be more of a growth/momentum play. The stock is down 32% in the last month, down 50% in six months, and trading well below all moving averages, so I’ll wait for price action to turn before potentially entering.

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Just a few days after this email, the stock chart flattened out. Then a couple of weeks later, it started to inflect. Now, just one month later, the stock is up almost 50% (but still down 50% in the last 6 months).

There are a handful of takeaways from this setup that we can learn as we look for future potential winners:

1. If the insider has insane returns (like 200% 1y returns), it’s probably worth taking a position most of the time

2. As we’ve found in our research, large transaction values are not a good signal. On average, transactions under $100k perform best. So, a $30k purchase should not scare you away.

3. Dip buying is the best signal

4. Most insider purchases are value buys, but momentum/growth plays can still work well, especially when paired with positive news (like new contracts) and/or a strong macro theme.

We saw a very similar growth/momentum setup at Kratos Defense (KTOS) in May. The CEO was buying the stock (and he had a killer track record), the Trump administration is very favorable for the Defense industry (good macro theme), and they were actively signing deals.

Kratos (KTOS) stock was ~$34 when we found it in May and got above $100 by October.

keep scrolling. top trades + all of the charts and data below

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