Top Insider Trades (Fri, Nov 30)

Good morning!

There have been a lot more compelling sells than buys recently, but a 10% owner at $RVP has now bought the stock 4 days in a row.

While we’re testing this daily newsletter, you will also still get the weekly Friday emails because I don’t have an easy way to allow opt you out of those. Once this premium version is formalized, then I’ll probably stop sending premium members the free, weekly email since you will have already seen those trades during the week.

Thanks for reading! I’m hoping to add a couple more sections this weekend.

Terminology

For Historic Returns, I calculate the weighted average returns, median returns, and win rates for the time period of 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 1 year. I also split the trades by sales and purchases. So for purchase trades, the returns and win rates are for all of that insider’s previous purchases, and for sale trades, the returns and win rates are for all of their previous sells.

• Weighted Average Returns: This calculates the returns (for the given timeframe) for all of the insider’s previous trades and then calculates the overall returns by taking the weighted average of the individual trades (weighted by the size of the purchase). So a trade of $1M is weighted 10x more than a trade of $100k.

• Median Returns: This simply calculates the median return for all of the insider’s trades (for the given timeframe). It doesn’t take into account the size of the trades but can be useful to see if the insider’s returns are driven by just a few trades. For example, if the weighted average return is 100%, but the median return is 5%, then the insider’s returns are likely boosted by just one (or a couple) of super successful trades.

• Win Rates: This is simply the number of profitable trades for the given timeframe / the total number of trades. So if 7 of 10 trades the insider has made are profitable after 3 months, they would have a 70% win rate for the 3-month timeframe.

Some other terms:

• Cluster Trades: when multiple insiders at a company make trades around the same time (typically within the same week)

• % Increased/Decreased Holdings: the size of the trade relative to how much of the stock the insider owned before making the trade. For example, if the insider owned $1M of the stock and then bought $250k more, that would be a 25% increase in their holdings.

All of the data is scraped directly from Form 4 filings that insiders must file with the SEC within 3 business days of placing a trade.

Top Purchases

The top purchases made by insiders yesterday. Remember, returns and win rates are calculated using the previous purchase trades by the insider.

10% Owner at Retractable Technologies ($RVP)

The 10% Owner purchased 4317 shares at $1.09/share ($4,697.33 total) which increased their holdings by 0.0%. The current price is $1.15 (+5.7%). (trade link) 

Historic Returns
1m returns: 25% weighted | 7% median | 71% win rate (213/302)
3m returns: 32% weighted | 13% median | 64% win rate (194/302)
6m returns: 61% weighted | 37% median | 76% win rate (194/302)
1y returns: 112% weighted | 110% median | 77% win rate (234/302)

Note: He has bought the stock every day for 4 days in a row

10% Owner at (BUKS)

The 10% Owner purchased 59,728 shares at $0.69/share ($41,212.32 total) which increased their holdings by 1.5%. The current price is $0.68 (-1.4%). (trade link) 

Historic Returns
1m returns: 4% weighted | 6% median | 72% win rate (23/32)
3m returns: 3% weighted | 19% median | 65% win rate (20/31)
6m returns: 24% weighted | 47% median | 59% win rate (20/31)
1y returns: 30% weighted | 33% median | 82% win rate (18/22)

Top Sales

The top sales made by insiders yesterday. Remember, returns and win rates are calculated using the previous sell trades by the insider. For sell transactions, “win rate” is the percent of profitable trades. If the “win rate” is low, that means the stock typically falls after the insider sells.

Director at Symbiotic (SYM)

The Director sold 69,500 shares at $52.30/share ($3.6M total). This was part of the same conversion we saw yesterday. The current price is $55.32 (+5.8%). (trade link)

Historic Returns
1m returns: -20% weighted | -19% median | 8% win rate (1/13)
3m returns: -20% weighted | -16% median | 23% win rate (3/13)
6m returns: -15% weighted | -12% median | 7% win rate (3/13)
1y returns: -30% weighted | -26% median | 21% win rate (3/14)

Note: These sales are part of a stock conversion from Class A Common Stock to Symbotic Holdings Units. Many of the insider’s previous sales are also from doing this conversion and the stock tends to dip afterwards. 

Director at Genie Energy (GNE)

The Director sold 12,725 shares at $24.45/share ($311k total) which decreased their holdings by 4.0%. The current price is $24.25 (-0.8%). (trade link)

Historic Returns
1m returns: -23% weighted | -23% median | 6% win rate (2/35)
3m returns: -25% weighted | -28% median | 17% win rate (6/35)
6m returns: -26% weighted | -29% median | 14% win rate (6/35)
1y returns: -27% weighted | -29% median | 3% win rate (1/35)

President at Semrush Holdings ($SEMR)

The President sold 23,016 shares at $10.29/share ($236k total) which decreased their holdings by 7.8%. The current price is $11.06 (+7.5%). (trade link)

Historic Returns
1m returns: -9% weighted | -6% median | 33% win rate (5/15)
3m returns: -26% weighted | -28% median | 0% win rate (0/15)
6m returns: -54% weighted | -51% median | 0% win rate (0/15)
1y returns: -54% weighted | -54% median | 0% win rate (0/13)

Director at Fox Corp ($FOX)

The Director sold 194,691 shares at $29.57/share ($5.75M total) which decreased their holdings by 100.0%. The current price is $27.69 (-6.4%). (trade link) 

Historic Returns
1m returns: -7% weighted | -5% median | 30% win rate (3/10)
3m returns: -6% weighted | -6% median | 22% win rate (2/9)
6m returns: -13% weighted | -4% median | 38% win rate (2/9)
1y returns: -26% weighted | -18% median | 10% win rate (1/10)