Top insider trades (Fri, May 15)

Connor’s Commentary

There were 223 new insider trades filed.

1 insider trade was flagged as High Signal (and may get added to the CEO Watcher Portfolio soon). I also shared my notes on why I passed on a flavored vape company with insider buying, even though Trump appears to be pressuring the FDA to reverse its regulation, and why Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) doesn’t look compelling to me, despite the stock price down 50% and insider buying.

CEO Watcher Premium subs can see those in the Trade Notes section of this email (just scroll down).

As a reminder, if you upgrade to CEO Watcher Premium (link) and find that it isn’t for you, I’ll give you a refund.

Some of today’s biggest trades:

• 10% Owner (DART KENNETH BRYAN) at Flutter Entertainment plc $FLUT purchased $68.46M. Dip Buy: the stock was down -52% in the previous 6 months. 6 other insiders also purchased the stock in the last 30 days. Is part of a dividend reinvestment.

• Director (GENERAL ATLANTIC, L.P.) at ALKAMI TECHNOLOGY, INC. $ALKT purchased $20.28M (5th largest purchase, out of 21). 1 other insider also purchased the stock in the last 30 days.

• 10% Owner (WATSA V PREM ET AL) at Under Armour, Inc. $UA purchased $5.87M (8th largest purchase, out of 10). Dip Buy: the stock was down -20% in the previous week.

• Executive Chairman at American Assets Trust, Inc. $AAT purchased $3.59M (9th largest purchase, out of 186).

• Director (PEREZ DE LA MESA MANUEL J) at POOL CORP $POOL purchased $1.76M (2nd largest purchase, out of 8). Dip Buy: the stock was down -33% in the previous 3 months. 3 other insiders also purchased the stock in the last 30 days.

• CHAIRMAN AND CEO at PhenixFIN Corp $PFX purchased $1.68M (largest purchase ever, out of 31). This increased their listed holdings by 20%.

• CEO, Chairman and President at FTI CONSULTING, INC $FCN purchased $1.44M (largest purchase ever, out of 3). 2 other insiders also purchased the stock in the last 30 days.

• Director (Pei Steven Yu-Tsung) at Comstock Inc. $LODE purchased $1.44M (first-ever purchase). This increased their listed holdings by 38%. 1 other insider also purchased the stock in the last 30 days.

• Chief Executive Officer at Upstart Holdings, Inc. $UPST purchased $1.38M (2nd largest purchase, out of 2). 1 other insider also purchased the stock in the last 30 days.

• Director (Stansberry Frank Porter) at MARKETWISE, INC. $MKTW purchased $547.40K (6th largest purchase, out of 12). This insider has purchased the stock 2 times in the last 30 days.

• Director (Ball George L.) at PARSONS CORP $PSN purchased $500.00K (6th largest purchase, out of 16). Their last purchase was 1534 days ago. 2 other insiders also purchased the stock in the last 30 days.

• CHAIRMAN & CEO at NORTHPOINTE BANCSHARES INC $NPB purchased $427.03K (3rd largest purchase, out of 4). This insider has purchased the stock 2 times in the last 30 days.

• Chief Strategy/Transf. Officer at FTI CONSULTING, INC $FCN purchased $345.70K (first-ever purchase). Reversal: they made 9 straight sales before this purchase. 2 other insiders also purchased the stock in the last 30 days.

• CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER at AECOM $ACM purchased $300.06K (largest purchase ever, out of 2). Reversal: they made 3 straight sales before this purchase. Their last purchase was 2191 days ago. 1 other insider also purchased the stock in the last 30 days.

• President & CEO at JACK HENRY & ASSOCIATES INC $JKHY purchased $266.84K (first-ever purchase). This increased their listed holdings by 10%. Reversal: they made 2 straight sales before this purchase. 1 other insider also purchased the stock in the last 30 days.

• Chief Executive Officer at Planet Fitness, Inc. $PLNT purchased $247.70K (first-ever purchase). Dip Buy: the stock was down -29% in the previous month. 1 other insider also purchased the stock in the last 30 days.

• Director (Baldwin Brian M) at JANUS HENDERSON GROUP PLC $JHG sold $320.61M (largest sale ever, out of 4). This decreased their listed holdings by -19%. 1 other insider also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• Director (Meister Keith A.) at ILLUMINA, INC. $ILMN sold $47.93M (5th largest sale, out of 15). 1 other insider also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• Director (BLACK DARREN M.) at LifeStance Health Group, Inc. $LFST sold $47.32M (largest sale ever, out of 5). This decreased their listed holdings by -20%. Rip Sell: the stock was up 24% in the previous month. 3 other insiders also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• Chairman and CEO at MP Materials Corp. / DE $MP sold $19.63M (8th largest sale, out of 17). Rip Sell: the stock was up 186% in the previous year. 2 other insiders also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• Director (Slusky Alexander R) at Rocket Lab Corp $RKLB sold $11.81M (3rd largest sale, out of 4). This decreased their listed holdings by -16%. Rip Sell: the stock was up 83% in the previous month. Their last sale was 525 days ago.

• EXEC. CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD at Enlight Renewable Energy Ltd. $ENLT sold $9.18M (first-ever sale). Rip Sell: the stock was up 34% in the previous 3 months. 4 other insiders also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• President-Systems Protection at nVent Electric plc $NVT sold $5.07M (2nd largest sale, out of 9). This decreased their listed holdings by -15%. Rip Sell: the stock was up 28% in the previous month. 4 other insiders also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• Director (Bessler Robert) at LifeStance Health Group, Inc. $LFST sold $4.61M (largest sale ever, out of 9). This decreased their listed holdings by -20%. Rip Sell: the stock was up 24% in the previous month. 3 other insiders also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• Director (Soultz Bradley Lee) at WillScot Holdings Corp $WSC sold $4.21M (first-ever sale). This decreased their listed holdings by -15%. Rip Sell: the stock was up 36% in the previous month. Reversal: they made 16 straight purchases before this sale.

• Director (North Run Strategic Opportunities Fund I, LP) at LIGHTPATH TECHNOLOGIES INC $LPTH sold $3.58M (6th largest sale, out of 7). Rip Sell: the stock was up 81% in the previous 6 months.

• VP, Chief Accounting Officer at Sandisk Corp $SNDK sold $3.49M (first-ever sale). Rip Sell: the stock was up 46% in the previous month. 1 other insider also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• SVP, Subsea Robotics at OCEANEERING INTERNATIONAL INC $OII sold $2.69M (first-ever sale). This decreased their listed holdings by -58%. Rip Sell: the stock was up 62% in the previous 6 months.

• SVP Emerging Innovations Group at CORNING INC /NY $GLW sold $2.08M (largest sale ever, out of 3). This decreased their listed holdings by -17%. Rip Sell: the stock was up 19% in the previous month. 7 other insiders also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• President and CEO at BORGWARNER INC $BWA sold $1.95M (largest sale ever, out of 7). Rip Sell: the stock was up 24% in the previous month. Their last sale was 1078 days ago. 4 other insiders also sold the stock in the last 30 days.

• and more…

Commentary

Happy Friday! Let’s take a look at CEO Watcher Performance this week.

CEO Watcher Portfolio

After a few weeks of outperforming the S&P, we got whooped this week as AI stocks had a killer week (though, it looks like they are set to open down a few percent, which will help close the gap when the markets open).

Honestly, it’s been a pretty frustrating last few months for the CEO Watcher Portfolio as AI stocks have absolutely smoked the rest of the market. SOXX is up 70% this year while the S&P is up 10%. Since semiconductors made up ~20% of the S&P this year, that means 14% of the S&P’s returns come from semiconductors, and -4% come from the rest of the stocks.

As I’ve mentioned many times, CEO Watcher will never be a momentum portfolio because insiders do not tend to buy stocks in the hot industries. This makes it very hard for the CEO Watcher Portfolio to perform well when a single industry dominates the market.

With that said, the CEO Watcher Portfolio has held up okay and is still beating the S&P by 8 points since we started the portfolio at the end of October. As a reminder, we’re actually beating the S&P by closer to 13 points because I accidentally placed a large purchase meant for my personal portfolio in the CEO Watcher Portfolio and had to sell during illiquid pre-market hours and lost the portfolio 5%.

There have been a ton of compelling insider purchases at stocks that rarely get cheap (or have insider buying). Once this AI run comes to an end, I think we’ll see some really good performance out of these stocks.

CEO Watcher High Signal List

Insider Sentiment

Insider sentiment remains steady up near the “very_bullish” threshold.

Under the hood, there is significantly above-average insider selling in Semiconductor and Tech Hardware stocks, and significantly above-average insider buying in Software, Professional Services, and Automobiles/Components.

At some point, there will be a rotation out of industries with heavy insider selling and into those with heavy insider buying.

Note: for premium subscribers, there is a page titled “industry_last_3m” in the CEO Watcher Premium Dashboard Google Sheet that is worth paying attention to. Historically, the industries with significantly above-average insider buying have great performance over the next 3-12 months.

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CEO Watcher Premium

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