Top CEO Trades (Wed, Nov 29)

Hello!

This is the first test issue of CEO Watcher Premium. I’ll be adding/removing/editing things as we go, so please give me feedback!

Note: I’m also not charging anyone yet. I just wanted to give early access to those most interested.

Terminology

For Historic Returns, I calculate the weighted average returns, median returns, and win rates for the time period of 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 1 year. I also split the trades by sales and purchases. So for purchase trades, the returns and win rates are for all of that insider’s previous purchases, and for sale trades, the returns and win rates are for all of their previous sells.

• Weighted Average Returns: This calculates the returns (for the given timeframe) for all of the insider’s previous trades and then calculates the overall returns by taking the weighted average of the individual trades (weighted by the size of the purchase). So a trade of $1M is weighted 10x more than a trade of $100k.

• Median Returns: This simply calculates the median return for all of the insider’s trades (for the given timeframe). It doesn’t take into account the size of the trades but can be useful to see if the insider’s returns are driven by just a few trades. For example, if the weighted average return is 100%, but the median return is 5%, then the insider’s returns are likely boosted by just one (or a couple) of super successful trades.

• Win Rates: This is simply the number of profitable trades for the given timeframe / the total number of trades. So if 7 of 10 trades the insider has made are profitable after 3 months, they would have a 70% win rate for the 3-month timeframe.

Some other terms:

• Cluster Trades: when multiple insiders at a company make trades around the same time (typically within the same week)

• % Increased/Decreased Holdings: the size of the trade relative to how much of the stock the insider owned before making the trade. For example, if the insider owned $1M of the stock and then bought $250k more, that would be a 25% increase in their holdings.

All of the data is scraped directly from Form 4 filings that insiders must file with the SEC within 3 business days of placing a trade.

Top Purchases

The top purchases made by insiders yesterday. Remember, returns and win rates are calculated using the previous purchase trades by the insider.

Exec Chairman - EdgeBuilder at Star Equity Holdings ($STRR)

The Exec Chairman - EdgeBuilder bought 2,000 shares at $1.03/share ($2k total). This increased his holdings by 26%. The current price is $1.10 (7% since the trade). (trade link)

Historic Returns
1m returns: 35% weighted | 34% median | 70% win rate (2/2)
3m returns: 3% weighted | 3% median | 70% win rate (2/2)
6m returns: 3% weighted | 3% median | 50% win rate (1/1)
1y returns: N/A

Director at Danimer Scientific, Inc. ($DNMR)

He bought 100,000 shares at $0.93/share ($93k total). This increased his holdings by 34%. The current price is $0.88 (-5.4% since the trade). (trade link)

Historic Returns
1m returns: 264% weighted | 8.8% median | 70% win rate (7/10)
3m returns: 216% weighted | 21% median | 70% win rate (7/10)
6m returns: 109% weighted | 12% median | 50% win rate (5/10)
1y returns: -24% weighted | -35% median | 17% win rate (1/6)

Note: Most of the returns are from one trade that had 300%+ returns

Top Sales

The top sales made by insiders yesterday. Remember, returns and win rates are calculated using the previous sell trades by the insider. For sell transactions, “win rate” is the percent of profitable trades. If the “win rate” is low, that means the stock typically falls after the insider sells.

Director at Symbotic ($SYM)

The Director sold 69,500 shares at $52.30/share ($3.6M total). It was a share conversion, so it didn’t seemingly change his holding percentage. The current price is $53.80 (+2.8% since the trade). (trade link)

Historic Returns
1m returns: -20% weighted | -19% median | 8% win rate (1/13)
3m returns: -20% weighted | -16% median | 23% win rate (3/13)
6m returns: -15% weighted | -12% median | 7% win rate (1/14)
1y returns: -30% weighted | -26% median | 21% win rate (3/14)

Note: These sales are part of a stock conversion from Class A Common Stock to Symbotic Holdings Units. Most of the insider’s previous sales are also from doing this conversion and the stock tends to dip afterwards.

10% Owner at Enfusion ($ENFN)

A 10% Owner sold all 1,000,000 shares at $9.86/share ($9.86M total). It decreased his holdings by 100%. The current price is $9.90 (+0% since the trade). (trade link)

Historic Returns
1m returns: -12% weighted | -12% median | 0% win rate (0/1)
3m returns: -26% weighted | -26% median | 0% win rate (0/1)
6m returns: -23% weighted | -23% median | 0% win rate (0/1)
1y returns: N/A

10% Owner at Ramaco Resources ($METC)

A 10% Owner sold 88,558 shares at $17.17/share ($1.5M total). It decreased their holdings by 7.5%. The current price is $16.94 (-1.3% since the trade). (trade link)

Historic Returns
1m returns: -23% weighted | -23% median | 0% win rate (0/1)
3m returns: -55% weighted | -55% median | 0% win rate (0/1)
6m returns: -45% weighted | -45% median | 0% win rate (0/1)
1y returns: -52% weighted | -52% median | 0% win rate (0/1)

Director at Nu Skin Enterprises ($NUS)

A 10% Owner sold 2,000 shares at $17.11/share ($34.2K total). It decreased their holdings by 7.5%. The current price is $16.62 (-2.9% since the trade). (trade link)

Historic Returns
1m returns: -17% weighted | -8% median | 14%win rate (3/22)
3m returns: -32% weighted | -18% median | 15% win rate (3/20)
6m returns: -30% weighted | -21% median | 12% win rate (2/17)
1y returns: -23% weighted | -25% median | 0% win rate (0/11)

Note: Part of a 10b5-1 plan

EVP at Analog Devices ($ADI)

The EVP of Global Operations sold 17,037 shares at $183.66/share ($3.1M total). It decreased their holdings by 75%. The current price is $183.20 (-0% since the trade). (trade link)

Historic Returns
1m returns: -11% weighted | -10% median | 6%win rate (2/32)
3m returns: —10% weighted | -7% median | 16% win rate (5/32)
6m returns: —5% weighted | -5% median | 38% win rate (12/32)
1y returns: 3% weighted | 14% median | 57% win rate (19/33)

Note: Part of a 10b5-1 plan