Top insider trades (Mon, Oct 27)

Connor’s Commentary

Sorry for the late start today. We are making massive improvements to CEO Watcher, which means massive improvements to this daily email (and the website, of course).

One improvement is that our data now goes back to 2009 (v 2018), which allows us to run much more analysis with much higher confidence and create compelling data like this Insider Sentiment score chart.

I’m not going to tell you exactly how it works, but essentially we filter out all of the trades we flag as “low signal” (stock purchase plans, dividend reinvestments, private placements, public offerings, tax sales, super small trades, late filings, etc) and then calculate the percent of insiders who are buying v selling over the last 3 months.

Historically, when this number is above 20% (the dashed green line), the S&P outperforms its historical average over the next 3-12 months. When the number is above 30%, it massively outperforms.

You can see that the four major spikes were some of the best buying opportunities over the last 10 years (early 2016, late 2018, COVID, and mid-2022). The two other times it crossed the Very Bullish threshold weren’t too bad either (mid-2023 and the April 2025 tariff dip).

Real-time Alerts

Another huge improvement we’ve made is real-time alerts on new insider trades (currently only available in the Discord, but coming to the website soon). For example, this morning, we were the first to find the CEO at FTI Consulting (FCN) buying $1M of the stock. Who knows how this one will work out, but CEO purchases have been getting some nice pops recently (this one is already up a few bucks since the alert), and it’s cool to be the first to know!

In summary

We have a ton of improvements coming to the CEO Watcher website, daily email, and Discord. This email is transforming into more commentary on high-signal trades v just raw data (all the raw data is available to slice and dice in any way you want on the website).

If you have any questions, suggestions, or feedback, please respond to this email (or email me anytime at [email protected]).

keep scrolling! more data below

🔒 Today’s Top Trades

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🔒 Other Trade Notes

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🔒 Data Dump

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