Top insider trades (Fri, Nov 21)

Connor’s Commentary

There were 248 new insider trades filed.

• A 10% Owner continues buying the NextDecade (NEXT) dip

• The President at indie Semiconductor (INDI) sells again

• The CEO at Tutor Perini (TPC) buys for the first time since 2020

• The CEO at Palladyne AI (PDYN) buys for the second day in a row

• A director at Evolv Technologies (EVLV) buys for the first time ever

• and much more…

I go into more depth on these companies in the CEO Watcher Premium sections below.

Commentary

Obviously, the last few weeks have been tough in the market, and the S&P is even below the 50d SMA for the first time in over 6 months.

My hunch is that most investors believe the US market is pretty pricey and due for a legitimate crash at some point, but that point is not now, and this is likely a short-term dip.

I currently would agree with that, and it looks like insiders would as well.

Looking at our monthly sentiment chart (which is always available to CEO Watcher Premium members in the CEO Watcher Premium Dashboard), October and November have actually been quite bullish.

Over the last two years, the only period with more bullish insider sentiment was the tariff crash earlier this year, and the S&P is up 30% since the April bottom.

Looking back over the last 10 years, the S&P’s 1y return is ~13.4% on average. When insider sentiment is above the median of 0.33, the return rises to 15%, and when sentiment is above 0.4 (as it’s been in October and November), the return exceeds 19%.

As you can see in our rolling Insider Sentiment chart below (also updated daily in the CEO Watcher Premium Dashboard), we are nowhere near “Very Bullish” levels of insider optimism (the best historical indicator of future performance), but insiders are pretty firmly in the “Bullish” camp.

The rolling chart has historically been the best indicator of insider sentiment that we have, but it lags a little bit due to it being a rolling average over the previous 3 months.

So I like to use the daily/weekly/monthly insider sentiment bar charts to get an idea of what the rolling sentiment will look like in the coming weeks.

Currently, if insider sentiment remains as strong as it has through October/November, that rolling 3m average will continue to work its way up.

keep scrolling. more data below

🔒 Today’s Top Trades

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🔒 Other Trade Notes

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🔒 Data Dump

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