🟨🤑 Top Insider Purchases of the Week

Hello all!

Here are the top Insider Trades of the week!

How CEOWatcher Works

(The top trades of the week are below this section)

Tons of websites/newsletters track insider trades, but CEOWatcher is the only one that calculates the historic returns for those insiders so that you can know which insiders tend to buy before the stock price pops. We are currently tracking over 3000 insiders every single day (and always adding more).

We can do this because of our main project, Yellowbrick Investing, which is a social stocks platform where you can connect your brokerage, find other top investors, see their portfolio and returns, and get notified when they make a new trade (make sure to sign up for that if interested). We spend thousands of dollars per month on stock data APIs and spent a year building out our internal Stock Data Service that lets us easily calculate the returns for insiders.

Terminology

Returns - The weighted average return over a given time frame

• Overall Returns - The weighted average return for all of the insider’s trades from the day they made the trade until the day this email is sent

  • Calculate the price when the email is sent / price the insider paid to get the overall return for each trade and then take the weighted average of all of those returns

• 1-Year Returns - The weighted average return for all of the insider’s trades from the day they made the trade until one year later (note: a trade needs to be at least one year old to have this calculation)

  • Calculate the price one year after the purchase / price the insider paid to get the 1-year return for each trade and then take the weighted average of all of those returns

• 90-Day Returns - The weighted average return for all of the insider’s trades from the day they made the trade until 90 days later (note: a trade needs to be at least 90 days old to have this calculation)

  • Calculate the price 90 days after the purchase / price the insider paid to get the 90-day return for each trade and then take the weighted average of all of those returns

Win Rate - The percentage of trades that are profitable for the given time frame (overall, 1-year, 90-days).

Other Yellowbrick Products

Yellowbrick - Social stocks platform to follow other top investors, see their holdings and returns, and get notified when they make a trade

CEO Leaderboard - The top 100 CEOs based on their 1-Year Returns

Politician Leaderboard (coming soon) - The top 100 politicians based on their 1-Year Returns

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Top CEO Trades

Noah Levy - Director at (link)

This is Noah’s 23rd purchase of MACK, his largest ever purchase by 2x ($1.19M), and he has positive returns on all 22 previous trades. The big downside here is that the stock rocketed more than 200% back in November after positive trial data for a pancreatic cancer treatment that they sold to Ipsen back in 2017. It looks like MACK doesn’t get paid until the drug gets FDA approval for certain uses, so the value of this stock clearly depends solely on whether the drug gets FDA approval. They announced a plan to file a supplemental New Drug Application with the FDA, but we don’t really have a timeline.

This is a potential longer-term play based solely on FDA approval. Since we know this trade fully hinges on whether it gets FDA approval, it might also make sense to wait until there is a better idea of when the FDA approval is.

Returns and Win Rate

Overall: 136% returns with a 100% win rate (22/22 trades were profitable)

1-year: 100% returns with a 100% win rate (11/11 trades)

90-day: 23% returns with a 62% win rate (13/21 trades)

Purchase Data

Total Amount Purchased: $1,190,000

Purchase Price: $11.9

Current Price: $11.85 (-0.4%)

Rating

Rating: 8/10

Why: Definitely a risky trade, but these are the big swings that make tracking insider trades exciting! So far, Noah has great win rates and returns. Add that to the fact this is his largest purchase (by 2x) and it’s definitely compelling. The other nice thing is that we know this is fully contingent on FDA approval, so we have an explicit end-point for this trade (if you want to trade it). We’ll know if we were right or wrong when the FDA either approves the drug or doesn’t.

David Goeddel - Director at (link)

This week was only his second purchase of TNYA with the first one coming back at the end of November. This purchase was a pretty average size for him ($465k), but the initial purchase back in November was a massive $25,000,000 purchase as part of a public offering TNYA was doing to raise money. The price hasn’t really changed at all over that time.

While we don’t have much history for David’s purchases of TNYA, he does have some pretty fantastic 1-year and 90-day win rates and returns (though his all-time isn't great), primarily due to his purchases of where he is also on the board of directors.

As is common with bio/pharma companies, the companies he is on the board of are quite volatile and hard to predict long-term. However, he seems to time his purchases to be made when he believes the short-term outlook for the company is strong and has had some great success doing that, even though his overall returns are pretty poor.

The upcoming catalyst for TNYA appears to be reporting results from their TN-301 Phase 1 clinical trial. Those results are planned for sometime in the second half of 2023

Returns and Win Rate

Overall: -35% (🤮) returns with a 20% win rate (11/53 trades were profitable)

1-year: 53% returns with a 97% win rate (32/33 trades)

90-day: 36% returns with a 75% win rate (33/44 trades)

Purchase Data

Total Amount Purchased: $464,827

Purchase Price: $2.51

Current Price: $2.71 (+9%)

Rating

Rating: 4/10

Why: Similar to Noah Levy’s trade this week, this trade seems to be contingent on the results of their Phase 1 TN-301 clinical trial with those results being reported sometime in the second half of this year. This insider trade is less compelling because they are still pretty early in that trial and David doesn’t have as solid of a track record as Noah. However, this is another biotech company to keep an eye on. If the news remains positive over the next 6ish months, this may be worth taking a bet on (especially if there are more insider buys as we get closer to when the results will be announced).

Michael Kerr - Director at (link) 

One of the biggest purchases this week, but it’s only his second-ever public purchase (his first one did work out well though).

Returns and Win Rate

Overall: 34% returns with a 100% win rate (1/1 trades were profitable)

1-year: 61% returns with a 100% win rate (1/1 trades)

90-day: 24% returns with a 100% win rate (1/1 trades)

Purchase Data

Total Amount Purchased: $2,609,850

Purchase Price: $130.493

Current Price: $132.43 (+2%)

Rating

Rating: 2/10

Why: Just not enough data here. It’s one of the biggest purchases this week and his one other purchase did work out fantastically, so I wanted to include it so we keep him on our radar.

Other CEO Trades

Many people ask about some of the biggest insider trades of the week that they see on openinsider and wonder what those returns look like. So this section is just a really quick overall of some of the largest trades of the week and the returns of those insiders.

David Hamamoto - Co-CEO at (link) 

Returns and Win Rate

Overall: -2% returns with a 9% win rate (1/11 trades were profitable)

1-year: -11% returns with a 55% win rate (1/9 trades)

90-day: -24% returns with a 44% win rate (4/9 trades)

Purchase Data

Total Amount Purchased: $2,521,680

Purchase Price: $10.09

Current Price: $10.07 (-0%)

Sudhanshu Shekhar Priyadarshi - CFO at (link) 

We don’t often see executives (especially CFOs) making open-market purchases at large conglomerates like this, so that’s always fun.

Returns and Win Rate

Overall: -5% returns with a 0% win rate (0/1 trades were profitable)

1-year: -30% returns with a 0% win rate (0/1 trades)

90-day: -4% returns with a 0% win rate (0/1 trades)

Purchase Data

Total Amount Purchased: $350,000

Purchase Price: $35

Current Price: $34.56 (-1%)

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Thank you!

Connor